A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
